Return to Normal? Cox Predicts More Deals, 15.7M Sales in 2024

Jackson Wheeler
6 Min Read


  • For 2024, Cox predicts a sales mix of 10% EV, 14% hybrid, and 78% ICE. By 2025, the shares will be 15%, 18%, and 69%, respectively.
  • Whether you have an eye on a new EV, a new ICE-powered vehicle, or a hybrid, the sellers’ market boom created by COVID’s supply chain shortages three to four years ago is over.
  • By last autumn, the average transaction price for an EV was $50,798, driven down by Tesla’s ATP of $50,051, and probably within reach of buyers able to pay the ATP for ICE and hybrid vehicles of $48,759.

Cox Automotive economists and analysts forecast 15.7 million new cars and trucks will be sold in the US in 2024, up by about 200,000 vehicles over 2023, but with virtually all the additional sales going to fleets.

After a year in which electric vehicle demand did not keep up with production growth, Cox projects more than 1.5 million cars sold in the US will be EVs, says Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, director of industry insights.

America purchased 1.1 million EVs last year to put the capper on Cox’s projection a year ago that sales would be at least 1 million, for 7% share of the market. Hybrids took 9% and internal-combustion the remaining 84%.

For ’24, Cox predicts 10% EV, 14% hybrid, and 78% ICE. By 2025, the shares will be 15%, 18%, and 69%, respectively, according to Cox’s latest annual forecast, presented earlier this week.

line chart showing market shifted toward buyers in 2023

Cox Automotive

The good news: Whether you have an eye on a new EV, a new ICE-powered vehicle, or a hybrid, the sellers’ market boom created by the COVID pandemic’s supply chain shortages three to four years ago is over.

The trend is toward a buyers’ market. Inventories have grown back to an average 70-day supply, according to senior economist Charlie Chesbrough, so incentives and dealer discounts are starting to return.

Overall, Cox expects slower growth as inflation stalls. Monthly payments are up 15% to 20% since the Federal Reserve began its inflation flight. Cox projects rates will come down by less than one percentage point, says chief economist Jonathan Smoke.

By last autumn, the average transaction price for an EV was $50,798, driven down by Tesla’s ATP of $50,051, and probably within reach of buyers able to pay the ATP for ICE and hybrid vehicles of $48,759.

map of us showing ev sales

Cox Automotive

By the end of 2023, ATPs were 98% of manufacturer’s suggested retail price, by no means a great new vehicle deal, but far better than the MSRP+ common during the pandemic years.

Don’t expect such a great deal on a new Toyota, Honda, or Lexus, where the days’ supply are well below the national 70-day average. Lincoln, Chrysler, and Jeep are at the top of the scale, with Lincoln and Chrysler above 140 days and Jeep above 130, according to Cox.

The two biggest winners of the 2023 auto market are Honda, which gained 1.3% market share to 8.4% thanks to a 33% sales increase over 2022, and General Motors, which gained 0.3% market share to 16.5% after a 14.1% sales increase over ’22.

headshot of cox automotive chief economist jonathan smoke

Cox Automotive

Cox Automotive’s Jonathan Smoke.

Toyota, off 0.8% to 14.4% market share; Ford Motor Company, down 0.6% to 12.7%; and Stellantis, down 1.3% to 9.8%; were the biggest losers among full-line automakers.

Cox Automotive estimates Tesla sold 654,888 vehicles in the US last year, a 25.4% increase over 2022, which would make it the nation’s ninth-largest automaker by volume, ahead of Subaru’s 632,086.

Tesla announced last week it had sold 1.81 million cars and SUVs globally last year, but it refuses to break out sales by country, and the brand’s no-franchise dealer sales system makes it hard to count.

Another automotive analyst firm, AutoForecast Solutions, estimates Tesla’s US number was slightly lower, at 640,000, but still above Subaru.

In your car shopping, are you finding more of a buyers’ market? Please comment below.

Headshot of Todd Lassa

As a kid growing up in Metro Milwaukee, Todd Lassa impressed childhood friends with his ability to identify cars on the street by year, make, and model. But when American automakers put an end to yearly sheetmetal changes, Lassa turned his attention toward underpowered British sports cars with built-in oil leaks. After a varied early journalism career, he joined Autoweek, then worked in Motor Trend’s and Automobile’s Detroit bureaus, before escaping for Mountain Maryland with his wife, three dogs, three sports cars (only one of them British), and three bicycles. Lassa is founding editor of thehustings.news, which has nothing to do with cars.

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Jackson Wheeler is a skilled editor at Speedofdaily.com, specializing in automotive content. With a background in Journalism and Automotive Engineering, he combines his passion for cars with his writing expertise to deliver captivating articles. Jackson's deep knowledge of automotive technology and his racing experience make him a valuable asset to the team, providing readers with informative and engaging content.
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